Published in Hawke’s Bay Today | By Blair Voorend

Hawke's Bay unemployment is set to rise higher than 8 per cent but our "resilient" economy will save us from the worst effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts say.

Business Hawke's Bay CEO Carolyn Neville said the region's economy was in good shape prior to COVID-19 with a long period of sustained growth, and she expected it to rebound slightly better than the New Zealand economy overall.

"We are a food-producing and food processing region, there is resilience in our local economy with those businesses having been able to trade through level 4."

The main focus and biggest impact on the region will be its unemployment rate, she said.

"Infometrics estimates the Hawke's Bay unemployment rate is likely to rise above 8 per cent next year, while other economists predict even higher.”

"Youth, unskilled workers, and older workers (55-plus) are most at risk from job losses and unemployment and during previous economic downturns Māori were also significantly impacted."

She said older workers faced a potential "double whammy" with the risk of job losses coming at a time when the value of their KiwiSaver funds are likely to have dropped as share prices have tumbled.

Stewart Group chief executive Nick Stewart said that the economic impact of the pandemic will be profound, widespread and, much like the virus itself, unrestrained.

"The small number of Covid-19 infections in Hawke's Bay could positively mean that if there were regional levels of lockdown in the future, Hawke's Bay could see improved business activity," he said.

Both said while industries such as tourism and hospitality will be worst hit by the pandemic, Hawke's Bay's main economic industries are still able to continue in some form or another in a strong capacity in the near to long future.

Hawke's Bay councils have all set up initial recovery plans and initiatives to support businesses during the period ahead.

Rent and rates relief is what Napier City Council is advocating for its businesses, particularly if Government help isn't forthcoming.

"We want our residents and business to know that we are here for them," Napier Mayor Kirsten Wise said.

"If they have any questions, or just need direction on where to go for help, they can call us. We don't want anybody falling through the gaps."

Neville said the economic uphill the region and the rest of the world will be facing after the pandemic is a long-lasting one.

"One thing is certain; recovery will take years, not months."

• Source: NZ Herald, Hawke’s Bay Today